Bit of an update as I found an interesting story on Phys.org.
It's always been a fascination of mine, earthquakes and animals. While there's many who believe that animals can sense the impending 'signals' of an earthquake, there's many that don't.
Years ago I had created a Facebook group called 'Domestic Animals Observed Acting Oddly or D.A.O.A.O.' - The purpose of this group was to try and get pet owners to as well as they could, observe their animals, and IF they had noted their pet acting oddly just before an earthquake or had any stories on the subject, to post about it. Never really got much headway on the whole notion.
So then this evening while reading through the articles on Phys.org, there was this really good story, sadly, it doesn't seem to put things in my favor. Though still, there's plenty accounts of snakes coming out of the ground. Birds taking flight en mass, dogs and cats freaking out. But does it all correlate to animals 'sensing' an upcoming quake?
Can Your Dog Predict An Earthquake? Evidence Is Shaky, Say Researchers
(phys.org) - - For centuries people have claimed that strange behavior by their cats, dogs and even cows can predict an imminent earthquake, but the first rigorous analysis of the phenomenon concludes that there is no strong evidence behind the claim.
The paper published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America instead suggests that most of this "evidence" consists of single observations and anecdotes that cannot be tested rigorously. Its authors suggest a series of questions that researchers should use in analyzing the evidence that abnormal animal behavior predicts earthquakes.
Heiko Woith and colleagues at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences say scientists must determine whether the link between the animal behavior and the earthquake is based on clearly defined rules (such as the animal's distance from earthquakes of a certain magnitude), whether the animal behavior has ever been observed and not followed by an earthquake, whether there is a statistical testing hypothesis in place to examine the evidence, and whether the animal population is a healthy, among other questions.
These questions are rarely asked, making it difficult to systematically analyze the evidence for animal prediction, the researchers concluded after studying 729 reports of abnormal animal behavior related to 160 earthquakes.
"Many review papers on the potential of animals as earthquake precursors exist, but to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that a statistical approach was used to evaluate the data," said Woith.
The researchers collected reports on potential earthquake predictions across a variety of animals, from elephants to silkworms. Most reports were anecdotes rather than experimental studies, and the majority of the reports came from three events: the 2010 Darfield earthquake in New Zealand, the 1984 Nagano-ken Seibu earthquake in Japan, and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy.
The unusual behaviors occurred anywhere from seconds to months prior to the earthquakes, and at distances from a few to hundreds of kilometers from the earthquake origins. Only 14 of the reports record a series of observations of the animals over time—most reports are single observations.
These weaknesses in the data make it difficult to confirm that these behaviors are predictive—meaning they signal an earthquake event before the event begins—rather than random occurrences or behaviors linked to the initial stages of an earthquake, such as foreshocks.
Foreshocks and abnormal animal behavior strongly cluster together in the statistical analysis by Woith and colleagues, suggesting that at least some of the behaviors may be related to physical phenomena from a seismic event already underway.
"The animals may sense seismic waves—it could P, S or surface waves—generated by foreshocks," Woith suggested. "Another option could be secondary effects triggered by the foreshocks, like changes in groundwater or release of gases from the ground which might be sensed by the animals."
One of the biggest problems with the animal data, Woith says, is the lack of continuous, long-term observations of animals experiencing earthquakes. "Up to now, only very few time series with animal behavior exist at all, the longest being just one year."
Without a long record, Woith said, researchers cannot be sure that their observations relate to an earthquake and not some other kind of environmental change or long-term fluctuation in the health of an animal population or its predators.
For instance, one study analyzed by Woith and colleagues found that toads were behaving "abnormally" for half of the total observation time recorded in the study—both before and after the earthquake.
Future studies should include a stricter, quantitative definition of just what constitutes "unusual or abnormal behavior" on the part of the animals, as well as a physical explanation for the change in behavior, the researchers note.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-04-dog-earthquake-evidence-shaky.html#jCp
From earlier this afternoon:
Well, that 'storm' certainly wasn't as bad as anticipated, at least not in Fredericton... Forecasts warned of "prolonged periods of freezing rain", "heavy rainfall", "flash flooding".... Strong winds were also forecast, but I didn't see none.
The good news is, the snow is almost gone.
Far from being 'time lapse' photography, I've been taking pictures over the last month or so of the snow slowly but surely leaving the 'field' beside our place.
From March 28th:
It's always been a fascination of mine, earthquakes and animals. While there's many who believe that animals can sense the impending 'signals' of an earthquake, there's many that don't.
Years ago I had created a Facebook group called 'Domestic Animals Observed Acting Oddly or D.A.O.A.O.' - The purpose of this group was to try and get pet owners to as well as they could, observe their animals, and IF they had noted their pet acting oddly just before an earthquake or had any stories on the subject, to post about it. Never really got much headway on the whole notion.
So then this evening while reading through the articles on Phys.org, there was this really good story, sadly, it doesn't seem to put things in my favor. Though still, there's plenty accounts of snakes coming out of the ground. Birds taking flight en mass, dogs and cats freaking out. But does it all correlate to animals 'sensing' an upcoming quake?
Can Your Dog Predict An Earthquake? Evidence Is Shaky, Say Researchers
The paper published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America instead suggests that most of this "evidence" consists of single observations and anecdotes that cannot be tested rigorously. Its authors suggest a series of questions that researchers should use in analyzing the evidence that abnormal animal behavior predicts earthquakes.
Heiko Woith and colleagues at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences say scientists must determine whether the link between the animal behavior and the earthquake is based on clearly defined rules (such as the animal's distance from earthquakes of a certain magnitude), whether the animal behavior has ever been observed and not followed by an earthquake, whether there is a statistical testing hypothesis in place to examine the evidence, and whether the animal population is a healthy, among other questions.
These questions are rarely asked, making it difficult to systematically analyze the evidence for animal prediction, the researchers concluded after studying 729 reports of abnormal animal behavior related to 160 earthquakes.
"Many review papers on the potential of animals as earthquake precursors exist, but to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that a statistical approach was used to evaluate the data," said Woith.
The researchers collected reports on potential earthquake predictions across a variety of animals, from elephants to silkworms. Most reports were anecdotes rather than experimental studies, and the majority of the reports came from three events: the 2010 Darfield earthquake in New Zealand, the 1984 Nagano-ken Seibu earthquake in Japan, and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy.
The unusual behaviors occurred anywhere from seconds to months prior to the earthquakes, and at distances from a few to hundreds of kilometers from the earthquake origins. Only 14 of the reports record a series of observations of the animals over time—most reports are single observations.
These weaknesses in the data make it difficult to confirm that these behaviors are predictive—meaning they signal an earthquake event before the event begins—rather than random occurrences or behaviors linked to the initial stages of an earthquake, such as foreshocks.
Foreshocks and abnormal animal behavior strongly cluster together in the statistical analysis by Woith and colleagues, suggesting that at least some of the behaviors may be related to physical phenomena from a seismic event already underway.
"The animals may sense seismic waves—it could P, S or surface waves—generated by foreshocks," Woith suggested. "Another option could be secondary effects triggered by the foreshocks, like changes in groundwater or release of gases from the ground which might be sensed by the animals."
One of the biggest problems with the animal data, Woith says, is the lack of continuous, long-term observations of animals experiencing earthquakes. "Up to now, only very few time series with animal behavior exist at all, the longest being just one year."
Without a long record, Woith said, researchers cannot be sure that their observations relate to an earthquake and not some other kind of environmental change or long-term fluctuation in the health of an animal population or its predators.
For instance, one study analyzed by Woith and colleagues found that toads were behaving "abnormally" for half of the total observation time recorded in the study—both before and after the earthquake.
Future studies should include a stricter, quantitative definition of just what constitutes "unusual or abnormal behavior" on the part of the animals, as well as a physical explanation for the change in behavior, the researchers note.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-04-dog-earthquake-evidence-shaky.html#jCp
From earlier this afternoon:
Well, that 'storm' certainly wasn't as bad as anticipated, at least not in Fredericton... Forecasts warned of "prolonged periods of freezing rain", "heavy rainfall", "flash flooding".... Strong winds were also forecast, but I didn't see none.
The good news is, the snow is almost gone.
Far from being 'time lapse' photography, I've been taking pictures over the last month or so of the snow slowly but surely leaving the 'field' beside our place.
From March 28th:
April 3rd
April 6th
April 8th
April 17th
But don't be fooled! It can very well still snow! I think I've even seen it forecast, but the good news is, for the most part, even when there's flurries it'll be accompanied by rain... We're on our way to Summer!
The last few days have been brutal on my back, but I've got an appointment to see my 'nurse/practitioner' on Friday. So at least maybe we can make some sort of headway on this. I know she wanted to wait until i was back from Cuba before we started any treatments and get me blood work and X-rays.
Pretty excited for Friday and the Capital Project screening. I'm proud that Dad and his 'lady friend'.. I don't know, I'm old school, so I say 'girlfriend'... Anyhow, it's awesome they are coming down for this.
Not that my parents didn't endorse my desire for a career in music when i was young. Mom drove me to our first practices as 'K.G. Wolfe' in the 1980's. Then Dad let us practice in our house on Victoria st. here in Fredericton.
They never came to any of our shows, until The Wasteland Zombies played the Maritime Metal & Hard Rock 'fest a couple Summer's ago AND Dad and Riet came down from Kingston to see that show, which was very cool, plus my Brother Gordy and Crystal were there as well. Gord and Crystal had come to many of the shows we played in Saint John... I'm not sure if Scott and Andrea have ever seen us live before... Maybe videos... But I've always felt 'supported' by my family. Some parents are not behind their kids at all, then some bands, like Saint John's 'Elevate the Virus' and Fredericton's 'Cable Crusher', their parents I've met at a lot of their shows.
I'm not even sure if I appear in the documentary on Friday. As Tim said last night on Johnny James radio show 'General Distortion', this screening on Friday is, well a screening meant for a certain audience. There will be another screening in the Fall and then there will be alternate 'cuts' forthcoming. The biggest and best is yet to come and that will be the Capital Project Webseries, due for release in the Fall of 2018. That will have near everyone and everything that Tim et all filmed.
I do need to make a correction, for some reason I think a couple posts ago, when I was talking about the project, I had said like '300 bands', but it's actually only 100 bands and up to 200 some interviews.
Any way you look at it, it's still a massive undertaking.
I've been listening/playing the Capital Project 'the Soundtrack' quite a bit since I got my copy. It's so well produced and is filled to the brim with great music by amazing local bands. Again, that we'd be so fortunate to be involved with this project is such an honor.
The bands return to rehearsing and writing has had a couple delays. We're waiting to hear what evening we can get in to the jam spot. I messaged the guys to let them know that Sunday is out for me as Dad will still be in town. I am looking forward to getting back to writing and rehearsing. I've tried to relay to the guys that I'm no longer interested in promoting or 'managing' the band. I asked for help so many times and got nothing that it's really turned me off of trying to put a lot of effort into the project. IF, we can just write some more and record an album, see it come to a vinyl release, I'd be happy to be done with it all... Although, there is still a part of me that might be interested in another music project, what genre, with who, I don't know. But I would probably be up for something.
I don't know IF we'll have any more shows for them to see at this point. We'll see how things go with my back and if I can get some relief from some sort of treatment.
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